Source: Authors’ tabulations away from Vs and you may CPS analysis

Due to the fact here seem to be falls in the wedding price on ages 59 and you may related increases within years sixty to own widows i subsequent check out the Theory 2 with the fashion in marriage counts in this a couple of years of age sixty. This enables us to take a look at exactly how localized the alteration for the behavior is. I use matters within data while the zero analysis you can expect to provide reliable denominators to own month-to-month prices. Since found about greatest committee out-of Profile 5, in the 1979 so you’re able to 1995 several months the newest peak quantity of marriages having widows within this 24-month variety is the times of your woman’s 60th birthday, that have particularly highest counts throughout the 3 months adopting the a great woman’s 60th birthday celebration. A-sharp decline in the few months before their 60th birthday celebration precedes that it peak. This trend is similar, however because pronounced on years before the latest 1979 laws change.

One month before 60th birthday celebration, the marriage amount try 72 percent less than the fresh baseline month (this is the prominent deviation on the standard)

Panel A great (descriptive statistics) signifies that in 1979–1995 months, brand new level quantity of marriage ceremonies for widows within the 24-month assortment is the woman’s 60th birthday celebration, having particularly higher matters regarding the 3 months after the a female’s 60th birthday celebration. A-sharp reduction in some of the months ahead of the 60th birthday celebration precedes you to definitely level. So it development is much like, although not while the noticable about years before the fresh 1979 legislation changes.

Committee B descriptors: Y-axis = Payment huge difference from -two years off 60th birthday celebration; X-axis = Weeks out-of 60th birthday (-23 through +23).

Committee B (regression abilities) shows that you will find 10 days after many years 59 (60th birthday, +step 1, +dos, +step 3, +8, +12, +18, +twenty two, +23, +a couple of years) where the wedding matters is actually mathematically and financially high regarding post-1979 laws months according to the newest pre-1979 law several months. The brand new development within 60th birthday is actually remarkable. The new counts in all weeks preceding brand new 60th birthday certainly are the same otherwise less than brand new standard month (two years before 60th birthday celebration). Likewise, what amount of marriage ceremonies with the 60th birthday celebration are 56 per cent greater than new baseline day. Such counts Latin Feels mobil is statistically unlike both at the step 1 per cent level. One, 2, and 3 months after the 60th birthday, what number of marriages remains 52, 36, and you will 25 % greater than the new baseline few days, suggesting the relationships penalty inside the Social Safeguards try extremely influential with the ladies who are particularly near to many years sixty. (Complete regression answers are obtainable in Appendix Dining table step 3.)

Notes: Weighted amount of ong widows regarding month and you will year class. Speaking of merely regarding says that have been throughout the MRA having most of the many years between 1968 and you may 1995 and this said previous relationship position on the relationships certificates. Get a hold of Appendix Table step three getting analytical significance of individual coefficients.

I have twenty-eight years of investigation and rehearse every weeks within this 2 yrs of the 60th birthday, to own all in all, step 1,372 observations

ln ( marriage count month , year ) = ? + ? ? ( month ) + ? ? ( month * after 1979 law change ) + ? ? ( year ) + ? , where < month>

All of our situated variable is the sheer log of month-to-month amount from marriages, relative to the fresh new 60th birthday. Our very own independent parameters tend to be few days dummies, with 24 months before the 60th birthday omitted; and you may a connection between the week dummies and you can perhaps the big date months are 1979 or afterwards. We include seasons dummies so you’re able to account for the possibility of a time trend in marriage matters, with the omitted category of 1968.